South Africa breathes easier

South Africa is about one third of the way through successfully hosting this season’s IPL. And, that is a nice, unplanned dress rehearsal for the big one, the Football World Cup next year, its own “coming out” party, a la China’s Olympics last year. But, that is not why South Africans are breathing easier.

In the middle of the IPL gala they also went through the national election process, the fourth edition in the post-apartheid era. The most authoritative number, though unofficial, I have is ANC scored 65.90%, mercifully less than two third. That fetches ANC 264 seats in the total of 400. That got out a big sigh of relief, from the South Africans themselves or not, I do not know, but definitely from the international finance broadsheets and other mainstream media outlets.

You must understand that with 2/3 majority, the ANC could alter, indeed, from the breathless reports, would have already altered but for the enlightened leadership of Mandela and Mbeki, the national constitution to make one party rule endemic. That party is, of course, the ANC. But then, you could have asked why such a concern, bordering on breast-beating, was not so visible during the previous exercise, in 2004. For your information, ANC scored 69.7%, more than two thrid majority in that election.

The difference in the media reaction is due to the differences in the life experiences, the personalities, the idiosyncrasies and the inclinations of the two leaders of ANC, of then and now. Thabo Mbeki, president of the ANC and the sitting president in 2004 is born to teachers and is at least partly educated by and in British universities, Master of Economics from the University of Sussex. No such luck for Jacob Zuma, the current president of ANC and the president of the nation, come May 6th, nothing beyond 5th grade. Mbeki looks athletic (granting him his age, 67 years), is very suave, indeed a dandy if you want to be uncharitable about it, and Zuma, your regular Joe, nothing differentiable. Mbeki is aloof and keeps company only of intellectuals whereas Zuma is an inveterate baby butt-kisser, a populist to the core.

Mbeki assuaged the concerns of the white and leveraged their capital while enforcing his economic paradigm; discernibly rightist within the overarching distributive principle. Indeed, one of the strongest criticisms of Mbeki is that on his watch the rich-poor divide got wider, perhaps thanks partly to a badly implemented Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) program.

On the other hand, Zuma’s base is strong within both the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the largest labor union federation COSATU. If form holds good, he would steer the ship leftward.

Mbeki had Trevor Manuel as his finance minister, a legacy inherited from Mandela. Manuel made his boss look good, indeed too good, from the perspective of some on the left. He steered the ship towards market economics and the economy boomed, at least for some. When Mbeki was thrown out, Manuel also made some noises but it is almost a sure bet that Zuma will retain Manuel as his finance minister.

But both men stand equally tall in their contributions to ending the apartheid regime. If one went to the prison, the other spent time as an exile. But, the similarities do not help in the comparison. The differences are too stark.

So, the powers that be in the media decided in 2004 that Mbeki is no risk, to international finance, and in 2009, Zuma, nothing but. Hence the difference in the treatment of the two. It is in a way the continuation of the apartheid mentality, as M. S. Prabhakara says in an article in The Hindu. In one, it is the color of one’s skin, in the other it is the color of money, green or red.

Now that the results are out, showing that the people are solidly behind Zuma, to the extent that that Congress of the People (COPE), the rump faction of ANC that came out in the aftermath of the coup d’état of Mbeki, got less than expected, a mere 7.42%. So, why are the South Africans rejoicing? Because, they can leave behind all the speculations and the prognostications of the pundits and see for themselves what the ship does under Zuma. The uncertainty is reduced.

Before the IPL season started we did not know whether we had one on our hands or not. Now we do. And, South Africans (have you noticed any blacks in the stands at the games? I have not) enjoy our league. In the same spirit we should hope for the success of South Africa under Zuma and enjoy when it materializes.

Raghuram Ekambaram

Australians are afraid

Australians have been declared by the International Tennis Federation (ITF) as the loser in their Davis Cup Asia/Oceania Group I tie with India scheduled for May 8-10 at Chennai, says this news report. You must read the full report, even perhaps source additional material from other media outlets to understand the paranoia of Australians.

Australians are hesitant to come to Chennai, Tennis Australia (TA) says, on account of the security concerns. TA president Geoff Pollard said, “… we have major security concerns for the players, particularly during the election.” India is “an area of such high risk.”

Mr Pollard has been joined by John Fitzgerald, the Davis Cup captain in detailing and elaborating the risk. Mr Fitzgerald believes that ITF should have “followed the move to switch the Indian Premier League to South Africa due to security concerns.” Dismissing the assurance from various sources, including the positive reports of the security review, Mr Fitzgerald lists the recent events that have drip fed his concerns – “… dozens of people are killed along the campaign trail of the event … [a] train was hijacked.” He discounted the safe conduct of the ATP tour event in Chennai in January. He asks, if all the safety assurances are satisfactory, why did IPL move to South Africa?

Now, come to Todd Woodbridge, the most capped Australian Davis Cupper. He characterized the Indian situation as a “very, very difficult predicament with the way their social system’s running.” Suddenly, a tennis player has become the sociology professor!

My replies, which of course, Messrs Pollard, Fitzgerald and Woodbridge shall remain obviously oblivious to. IPL is a sustained campaign involving at least eight venues in eight cities with fifty nine matches to be played over a span of about a little more than a month. Davis Cup tie is a three day affair, at one location. The minimum seating capacity in an IPL arena is about 25,000 and that is at least twice as large as the capacity of the stadium for the tennis tie. The size of any one IPL contingent should be at least thrice as big as that for the Davis Cup.

That is, there is at least an order of difference between the security efforts required at the IPL campaign vis-à-vis the Davis Cup tie. It is really surprising that no one hit the three Australian Musketeers with this feature of their anomalous comparison.

Let me teach a few points of Indian sociology to the good Australian professor and his compatriots! India adds to its population nearly an Australian population every year (India’s eighteen million to Australia’s twenty one million). Our society is functional even under this ever increasing burden. What is a mere dozens of deaths in a surcharged atmosphere where 714 million people (thirty five times the population of Australia!) are exercising their rights? Will the Australian players be walking along the campaign trail, which is where such violence is encountered? I, as much as any Indian, would like to play out the ideal scenario - violence-free elections. But, when there are deviations from the idyll, we need to bring in the context. When we do, we see that India during elections is a model to emulate. Indeed, India is a country of low risk.

Pray tell how many of the Australian Davis Cuppers are going to travel by train, to cite as a concern the brief hijacking drama of a train in a place far from Chennai where the match is to be played. Please do not play up the fear factor because you end up undermining your arguments. That is my advice to Mr Fitzgerald et al.

By the time, the matches roll around, the election fever will be on the down side, having completed more than 80% of it. Chennai goes to poll on May 13th, the last of the five phases, three days after the Davis Cup tie. By then, the Australians would be ensconced quite comfortably in their native land, if not with a warm feeling of having entered the World Group (that is my prognosis for the event that is now not to be).

Now, I want to ask the Australians a few questions. Aren’t Australians going on vacation to Bali? Did the English team not come back after the Mumbai event to play out the test series? Was the English team not protected during the event and evacuated safely to their country? Will you refuse to go to the US to play a Davis Cup tie, because, after all the terror-defining 9/11 happened there? Did the Australian players not take part in Wimbledon when the IRA was active? You must remember that Louis Mountbatten was assassinated by the IRA. Japan has had terror attacks and so has China and not to talk of Russia, Israel, South Africa, Spain, Germany. Where will you play, please tell us. Iceland? Or, perhaps Antarctica? If I had the choice, I will send you off to Afghanistan. If you want to hide behind the reason of safety from terror attacks, you really have no place to hide.

Now, to conclude, I know why the Australians are not coming. They are afraid. They are not afraid for their safety but for their performance against India. It is better to lick the wounds before they are inflicted.

Raghuram Ekambaram

Dimensions of democratic exercise

We miss irony even if it smacks us across our face! Like what happened just now.

The Indian Professional League’s (IPL) second season shifted out of India citing elections to the Indian parliament and the inability of the state machinery to provide the required security cover for the cricket matches, given the election commitments.

India has an area of nearly 3.3 million square kilometers with a population upwards of a billion with the electorate itself numbering 714 million. There is no way this can be a single day exercise. We are in the middle of the five phase polling. It is a logistical nightmare, shifting security forces across the vast nation and all that. And, time after time, we have succeeded.

And, we are doing it under elevated security concerns, most of them home grown, except in the border areas. And, in the post- Mumbai attack climate, the authorities were well advised not to divert attention from security for elections to other engagements, like the IPL.

Where did we shift the IPL to? To South Africa. I, for one, am glad because I get to ogle at Ms. Mandira Bedi! I do not know who I would have been forced to leer at had the season been shifted to England, the other alternative. Thank god for small mercies.

This is where irony stares us in our face. South Africa occupies an area of little more than 1.2 million square kilometers and has a population of less than 50 million. Its voting population is less than 24 million. That is, the South African democratic exercise is no more than 3% the size of India’s. And, the area to be covered is marginally greater than one third of Inda's.

The second season of IPL is book ending the South African national elections, held yesterday, in a single phase. This was one in which there was the real opportunity for the population to show displeasure at the ruling dispensation. And, you know what happens under such conditions in countries of that continent. Violence, polling violence. And to add to the complications, South Africa is indeed crime infested. Yet, the cricket matches are continuing, quite smoothly. So far, no one has commented on this aspect.

If you ever wanted to understand the dimensions of Indian elections, the current situation is as good a starting point as any. Let us recognize the irony first, though. Shifting from amidst national polls in India to book ending a similar exercise in South Africa.

Raghuram Ekambaram