South Africa breathes easier

South Africa is about one third of the way through successfully hosting this season’s IPL. And, that is a nice, unplanned dress rehearsal for the big one, the Football World Cup next year, its own “coming out” party, a la China’s Olympics last year. But, that is not why South Africans are breathing easier.

In the middle of the IPL gala they also went through the national election process, the fourth edition in the post-apartheid era. The most authoritative number, though unofficial, I have is ANC scored 65.90%, mercifully less than two third. That fetches ANC 264 seats in the total of 400. That got out a big sigh of relief, from the South Africans themselves or not, I do not know, but definitely from the international finance broadsheets and other mainstream media outlets.

You must understand that with 2/3 majority, the ANC could alter, indeed, from the breathless reports, would have already altered but for the enlightened leadership of Mandela and Mbeki, the national constitution to make one party rule endemic. That party is, of course, the ANC. But then, you could have asked why such a concern, bordering on breast-beating, was not so visible during the previous exercise, in 2004. For your information, ANC scored 69.7%, more than two thrid majority in that election.

The difference in the media reaction is due to the differences in the life experiences, the personalities, the idiosyncrasies and the inclinations of the two leaders of ANC, of then and now. Thabo Mbeki, president of the ANC and the sitting president in 2004 is born to teachers and is at least partly educated by and in British universities, Master of Economics from the University of Sussex. No such luck for Jacob Zuma, the current president of ANC and the president of the nation, come May 6th, nothing beyond 5th grade. Mbeki looks athletic (granting him his age, 67 years), is very suave, indeed a dandy if you want to be uncharitable about it, and Zuma, your regular Joe, nothing differentiable. Mbeki is aloof and keeps company only of intellectuals whereas Zuma is an inveterate baby butt-kisser, a populist to the core.

Mbeki assuaged the concerns of the white and leveraged their capital while enforcing his economic paradigm; discernibly rightist within the overarching distributive principle. Indeed, one of the strongest criticisms of Mbeki is that on his watch the rich-poor divide got wider, perhaps thanks partly to a badly implemented Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) program.

On the other hand, Zuma’s base is strong within both the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the largest labor union federation COSATU. If form holds good, he would steer the ship leftward.

Mbeki had Trevor Manuel as his finance minister, a legacy inherited from Mandela. Manuel made his boss look good, indeed too good, from the perspective of some on the left. He steered the ship towards market economics and the economy boomed, at least for some. When Mbeki was thrown out, Manuel also made some noises but it is almost a sure bet that Zuma will retain Manuel as his finance minister.

But both men stand equally tall in their contributions to ending the apartheid regime. If one went to the prison, the other spent time as an exile. But, the similarities do not help in the comparison. The differences are too stark.

So, the powers that be in the media decided in 2004 that Mbeki is no risk, to international finance, and in 2009, Zuma, nothing but. Hence the difference in the treatment of the two. It is in a way the continuation of the apartheid mentality, as M. S. Prabhakara says in an article in The Hindu. In one, it is the color of one’s skin, in the other it is the color of money, green or red.

Now that the results are out, showing that the people are solidly behind Zuma, to the extent that that Congress of the People (COPE), the rump faction of ANC that came out in the aftermath of the coup d’état of Mbeki, got less than expected, a mere 7.42%. So, why are the South Africans rejoicing? Because, they can leave behind all the speculations and the prognostications of the pundits and see for themselves what the ship does under Zuma. The uncertainty is reduced.

Before the IPL season started we did not know whether we had one on our hands or not. Now we do. And, South Africans (have you noticed any blacks in the stands at the games? I have not) enjoy our league. In the same spirit we should hope for the success of South Africa under Zuma and enjoy when it materializes.

Raghuram Ekambaram