Whales,
indeed, pilot whales who should know better, have beached themselves in South
Africa [1]. An earthquake is in the offing.
Without
that brief cautionary start to this post, I may as well be waiting for the
midnight knock on my doors. It is not an impossible scenario. There is not much
difference between argon gas and beaching of whales.
For
the uninitiated, let me take you back a few years, to the town L’Aquila in
Italy. One fellow predicted that as the levels of argon in the atmosphere had
shown some increase, an earthquake is imminent in the region. He stuck his neck
out and gave a date too. But that day came and went but no earthquake.
But
the government asked one of its agencies associated with disasters, populated
by scientists, to evaluate the likelihood of an earthquake. They said that the
probability was low. But then, in an enactment of Chinese Whispers, the low probability became a possibility, indeed
an impossibility. To make a long story short, that game put the scientists, six
of them, not to mention their spokesman, behind bars.
The
lesson learnt is one should never discount the possibility of a seismic disaster.
In a blog post [2] of about 5 years ago, much before the L’Aquila earthquake,
someone claimed there indeed is a correlation between whale beaching and
earthquakes, which can lead to prediction. I had criticized confusing weak correlation
with cause-effect connection. Now, I know I was wrong.
The
writer of the post is a medical professional of a high order. Yet, as much science
literate as he must be, he is sharply cued into the sociology of disasters.
People have an innate desire to be told that disasters are just round the
corner (so they can deposit their monies in the nearby temple!). This is a means
of differentiating themselves from the others, by offering more to Gods. If
there is no prediction of disasters, how will the haves rise above the have-nots,
on their way to Heaven?
The
scientists in the L’Aquila case discounted sociology and are paying the price.
I Learnt my lessons and I am now predicting that as the pilot whales, no less,
have beached themselves in South Africa, there will be an earthquake somewhere
in the world, howsoever weak or strong, in the future.
Let
us be prepared.
Now
that I have predicted the earthquake and cautioned my fellow citizens across
the world, I have no fear of midnight knocks.
Raghuram
Ekambaram
References
1 comment:
I truly escaped incarceration! The Iran and Papua Newguinea earthquakes have stood me in good stead, and as South Afmricans would say, their whales, by beaching themselves, "came through for me"!
RE
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