Arvind Kejriwal and the astrological geese

The news flash was that some people, and perhaps some stars and planets too, conspired against Nandan Nilekani and forced him to file his nomination papers during a  bad (read 

“inauspicious”) phase of the day. That gave me an idea to suggest the time Arvind Kejriwal should file his nomination papers for the high-profile Varanasi seat.

But, there are a few preparatory steps to take. Kejriwal must first assemble a gaggle of geese, that is a good metaphor for astrologers sitting cross legged, I suppose, after flying in from different corners of the nation. Apparently it takes at least five geese to make a gaggle. Here I would suggest, in light of enhanced status of humans vis-à-vis geese, that the quorum for gaggle be raised to a dozen.

Then, Kejriwal should ask the astrologers to consult his horoscope in conjunction with ALL the textbooks, ALL the practices across this vast nation which include Rahu Kalam,  Yema Kandam, palmistry, Nadi jotish (pulseology?), Numerology, alphabetology  – standard or non-standard, none excepted – of their trades. Kejriwal would then organize a brain storming session, no outsiders allowed.

Here comes the catch. The astrologers will be asked to identify the most inauspicious time for Kejriwal to file his papers in Varanasi, running against BJP’s Prime Minister-in-waiting Narendra Modi. The session, after what I expect to be a series of cantankerous meetings, will suggest the time that would guarantee that he will lose, indeed lose big, in the election to the parliament from that holiest of holy places, for the simple reason he violated all the tenets of astrology, Hindu astrology. This recommendation, Kejriwal will follow in letter and spirit.

If Kejriwal desires he may also convene another session to suggest the most auspicious time for him to file his papers from another “safe” constituency. This would be Daily Double  for the astrologers.

What is in these sessions for the astrologers? Besides the obvious monetary benefits, it is a win-win situation (literally) for them. They are guaranteed to win on two counts – when Kejriwal loses from Varanasi – which as polls indicate is a certainty – and when he wins from the “safe” constituency.

Astrologers, though their business has been flourishing, have been on the defensive of late. True, Narendra Dabholkar has been removed from the scene but there are enough pesky pests around. Statisticians gleefully note that astrologers’ predictions do no better than what a random pick would allow. Kejriwal affords them a virtual clinching argument in this debate, often acrimonious.

The group’s recommendations, sure to be followed by the candidate at both the locations, will cement the reputation of the astrologers among the aam aadmi. This is the least the self-proclaimed Aam Aaadmi Party (AAP) can do. One out of two correct predictions may be random, but two out of two, as definite to be in this case, is something astrophysicists will sell their soul for to confirm the remnants of gravity wave ripples during the inflationary phase of the universe, uncomfortably close to the beginning of time.

One may as well ask what is in this for Kejriwal/AAP. One word, credibility. As I had suggested in an earlier blog contesting as a sure shot loser does not validate Kejriwal’s position as a crusader. He has to be present in the parliament. But he must also have valid reasons for contesting from two constituencies and losing one. Astrologers provide the required rationale, for both.

Two birds in one stone; alas, neither is a goose.

Raghuram Ekambaram

Why I am not enamored of AAP

Aam Aaadmi Party (AAP) has surprised many people by its showing in the Delhi elections, yours truly is one of them. But, some of us have become enamored of the party, and I am not one of them.

Indeed, AAP’s success has made me fearful of our future. Rest assured I am not a votary of the corrupt parties that were in the fray. My fear has everything to do with how the voting public was swayed to vote for AAP. To the extent I followed the election process, I did not see any stand the AAP had taken on a number of substantive issues. Admittedly this is a local election and matters that come to the fore at the level of the Central Government do not resonate here. Yet, I also did not hear any assertion that AAP will stay attached only to local government(s) and governance!

There was not a whole lot on transport, solid waste disposal, wastewater treatment, addressing poverty, slums, and a host of other issues for which the legislators are responsible. It was as if when corruption is taken care of all the other matters will resolve themselves. This is where a statement by a distinguished, responsible, socially conscientious engineer that I read recently came to my mind.

‘There are no easy answers to complicated problems; at best there can be the most suitable compromise’ – Jorg Schlaich

Here, governing Delhi is a complicated problem, if ever one can be identified. It is a local government, yet it is not. AAP is focused on what it thinks is the source of the problem – corruption. It is entitled to its opinion. Yet, it cannot stop with that if it has any aspirations for governance through transparency. Transparency is more than a slogan, is an instrument of governance, an integral one.

AAP should have laid out a road map of how that transparency will translate itself into solutions to the problems, and, it did not. True, it said it will achieve this, provide that and so on. But it did not lay out a doable scheme, or even claim it has one. Did AAP mention anything at all about being open to ideas from elsewhere? On compromise? Mentioning the ends and not discussing the means is not an example of transparency. That is, its election campaign paid only lip service to transparency.

That justifies why I am not enamored of AAP. And, I am afraid for our future because the electorate thinks what AAP is and implies it can do is the real thing.

Raghuram Ekambaram

Adam Smith, Forbes, Kejriwal, AAP

A news item [1] was critical of the fact that 11 of the 70 candidates of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as declared by the candidates themselves, are worth more than Rs. 1 crore with “R.K. Puram candidate Shazia Ilmi” sitting atop a pile of Rs. 30 crores. The list includes AAP head honcho, the great Arvind Kejriwal (on the margins to be sure, only Rs. 92 lakhs). Given all the data, we can do a detailed analysis, find the mean, median, standard deviation etc., locate individuals at 3 sigma and more, but that is not the exercise I wish to take here.

My interest here is in something Kejriwal said: “”Whoever owns a house in Delhi is a crorepati.” This was in defense of his candidates, at least the unlucky 11.

That statement sent me scurrying to Adam Smith’s An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nation, of which I am a little more than 1/3 way through. I read, “The stock that is laid out in a house, if it is to be the dwelling house of the proprietor, cease from that moment to serve in the function of a capital, or to any revenue to its owner.” OK, maybe Adam Smith did not know what our finance wizards are capable of, CDOs, securitization of mortgages etc. We will take what he said, in the 18^th century, with a pinch of salt.

But, that cannot be the full story. The magazine Forbes must know the newest trick in the universe of finance. When it estimates the wealth of the super richest, it does not reckon the primary residence of the person. To make it simple, Mukesh Ambani’s Altamont Road residence, the ugly skyscraper Atilia (If I spelled it right) does not count. Likewise, the Kensington residence of Lakshmi Mittal, before he sold it, as reported.

Now, I haven’t the faintest how the Election Commission of India reckons the primary residence of the candidates. Does it listen to either or both Adam Smith and Forbes? But, if we take Kejriwal’s word for it, the primary residence counts, in which case his claim is patently untrue, unless the type of residence and its locality is clarified. Owners of Janta and at least some SFS flats, possibly the real aam aadmis, must be surprised to hear what Kejriwal said. And, less said the better about those who have a house in Gurgaon!

On top of this, he has started down the slippery slope of comparing himself and AAP with the other politicos: “We are nowhere. [The talk should be of billionaires].” Then, we are left to wonder whether the comparison will extend to corruption too (“The talk should be of lakhs of crores of rupees, not merely thousands of crores”).

And then, to what else?

Where is the exit ramp for AAP along this slippery slope?

Raghuram Ekambaram

References

1.    Many crorepatis in Aam Aadmi Party, Mohammed Ali, The Hindu, November 17, 2013  

Democratic corruption

I cannot lay a claim to even minimalist understanding of the spate of scandals (in India, they go under the rubric scams) that currently overwhelm not just the front page, the editorials and the op-ed pages of newspapers but also all the other so-called inside pages. Therefore, you understand that anything I say on scandals cannot carry much credibility; yet, I am exercising my right to say what I want to say.

To talk about scandals, the first thing I needed was a listing of scandals, and there is always Wikipedia [1]. Now, please do not lecture me; I know Wikipedia is not authoritative on anything, much less on something as nebulous as scandals in India, many of which get swept under the carpet. But, there is nothing wrong in taking it as the lower bound and that is what I intend to do.

There are some inescapable conclusions from the list. Starting with the not-so-important, I noticed that not all scams had a rupee values assigned to it. So, apparently there is categorization. Monetizable corruption and the others. Only 20 of the 40 plus listed under 2012 carry a Rupee and Dollar number. This must be of interest beyond the fact that only half the scandals have been monetized. What is the CAG doing, when it was so ready with the eye-catching number Rs. 1,76,000 crores for the 2G Scam? In 2010 only two of nine scams could be monetized! CAG might counter that it has more important fish than Toilet Scam or Delhi Surgical Gloves Scam to catch!

Going beyond, I notice that the list uses a fixed exchange rate of about 54.94 rupees to a dollar. Can this be applicable to the Cement Scam of 1981 – Rs. 30 crore (USD 5.46 m)? Is there any rhyme or reason in the choice of the current exchange rate? I suspect that Rs. 30 crore in 1981 was more eye-catching than Rs. 3,000 crores is in 2012. As far as I can see, there is no mention at the Wikipedia website that the amounts had been normalized to any year. My observation here is that the list does not seek to enlighten, only to capture attention.

Coming to the more important aspect, the list mentions only the year the affairs came to the notice of the public and not the year of their genesis. For example, the 2G Spectrum Scam is listed out for 2010, but we know its origin traces itself back some years. We have to bear this in mind when we reckon the annual-density of scandals, like 43 for 2012, 23 in 2011, 10 in 2010, stabilizing in single digits for a few years, then for one decade and on down – 9 scandals between 1951 and 1989. These numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt as the Wikipedia list has some “named scandals” in a box but surprisingly Nagarwala Scandal and Bofors (the ones with true names!) are listed not in this box, but outside! I also may be excused for not being diligent enough to avoid double counting. But, I am confident that the trend will stand up to scrutiny even if the lists were put under a more rigorous scanner.

It is from here we quickly conclude that we have reached the apex (or is it the nadir) of venality in 2012. However, it is simply not the matter of politicians becoming venal, but the political system becoming vulnerable. If you are as cynical as I am, you may even want to say the system is designed to be vulnerable.

There is a rightful claim to the spoils of governance (a nice phrase isn’t it?) from those outside the power-enclosure as it is for those within. The system is tuned to serve all the potential power-holders alternately so that none loses out. It is just that over time the entities demanding a share of the loot has increased and also the number of deprived among them. Therefore, it is necessary that instances of the loot be brought to the notice of the public.

The media get into the act. The list of scams grows. Bingo, wailing and breast-beating by the so-called civil society, particularly the aam aadmi. Aam aadmi gives rise to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The list of stake holders in Governance Looting, in the Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode, is like the Hilbert Hotel, never saying no to any visitor – there is always a room in the hotel of corruption.  

The whole thing is a farce. It is not about corruption at all. It is all about democratic looting. “You have had the opportunity. Now, it is our turn. I am ready with my party. Bring on the elections!”

It is, after all, democracy at work, in the service of corruption, scam and scandals.

Raghuram Ekambaram

References

1.    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scandals_in_India