You must be thinking, “Oh, this know-nothing has gone crazy. Obviously he does not know a cloud burst is more of a meteorological phenomenon rather than a climatic one.”
There is a saying in Tamil that may be inelegantly translated as, “Tie the shin and the tonsured head.” That is, desperately connect disparate things. I am notorious for this. So, please bear with me.
Yesterday, as per reports, the clouds burst over the airport in Delhi. It was raining torrentially elsewhere too in the region but no other locality got an 11 cm downpour inside of one hour. If you recall, we had a cloud burst in Himachal Pradesh (I may not be locating it correctly, but it was somewhere up there) a few years ago. Prior to that it was in Mumbai. Now, it has happened in Delhi.
And, in my 45 years of living in India, the Mumbai event was my first experience, even if it be vicariously as I was far from Mumbai, of a cloud burst. Is a cloud burst an event of 50 year return period? And, what is the spatial extent that should be considered for that return period? I haven’t a clue but it is sort of irrelevant as I try to tie up a few things.
I am wondering whether the frequency of cloud bursts is a climatic measure. Note that I am being very specific. It is the frequency of the event in a region that I am concerned about. We have strong reasons to suspect that rainfall patterns are changing, both spatially and temporally. Is the frequent occurrence of cloud bursts one of the extreme weather measures that climate scientists would consider as a step towards establishing global warming? I do not know.
I believe Mumbai treats Ganesh Chaturti as the end of the monsoon season. But the celebration has come and gone and yet it is raining in many places across the country, including Mumbai. We must remember that the marking the end of the monsoon with this celebration already accommodates variations, because as per the Gregorian calendar it can be anytime between mid August and mid September.
It is not just this year and it is not just monsoon. About 20 years ago, beginning of October was when people started adding a layer of clothing to protect their bodies. Now, it is at least late October before Fall jackets come out of storage in Delhi (except for Bengalis!). Likewise very cold temperatures have been felt as late as March in Delhi.
I do not know whether any of these changes in weather patterns ARE indeed manifestations of global warming, incipient though it may be. Scientists are sort of convinced they are, but every pronouncement they make is tinged with this disclaimer, “No single weather event can be attributed to global warming.” Yes, heat wave, but cannot be sure it is because of global warming. Yes, flooding, but is it because of global warming? Don’t know. They are being truthful to a fault, and in the process, repeat the statement, “I/We do not know.”
The climate skeptics, driven as they are by very powerful and rich lobbies, mainly of hydrocarbon based industries on the supply side, and power generation companies and automobile industry on the demand side, are unscrupulously untruthful. The lobby latches onto the scientific uncertainties as proof of the certainty that there is no global warming; it is all a big hoax. Non-science is validated by the uncertainties of real science. Is this a logic you can support? If yes, I request you not to read further.
The business-friendly unscientific cabal says the scientists are not sure. True, but only to an extent. Climate scientists add a post-script to their assessment – we truly can feel the weather changing, many times as we have predicted and well within the error bands we had indicated. But this sub-disclaimer is buried in the cacophony of non-science.
Ask them why we have seen heat waves so frequently and with such intensity that events of 100 year return period seem to repeat in ten years. Likewise for rain, flooding, sustained drought, patterns of time-shifted blossoming of flowers etc. etc. Total silence. No effort to offer even a pseudo-explanation. Because, they do not know. But, unlike scientists they are not honest enough to admit they do not know. Yet, they have a following. I do not know how this can be.
What would you say? We prepare ourselves for the effects of global warming keeping in mind the whole thing could be false positive. Or, we should do the Business-As-Usual stuff and ignore all these Cassandras. The possibility of false negative goes unacknowledged.
Whether the frequency of cloud bursts is climate related, I do not know.
As you observed at the start of this post, I am a know-nothing and I have offered much proof supporting your assessment.
Yet, I am concluding without knowing that the frequency of cloud bursts is a climate change related measure. This is the desperate connection between the shin and tosured head.
I know at least one thing. I am a Cassandra.
Take that.
Raghuram Ekambaram
