There
is something about the word “charisma” that makes us miss observing much of the
world. Yes, tiger is charismatic megafauna. Yes, we know it jumps between being
endangered or not, depending on how it is counted, who counts it and various
other factors. But, how many of even stop to read that a new species of frog
has been spotted in the Western Ghats or another frag species is on the verge
of extinction? Hardly anyone. Why? Frog is not charismatic megafauna, that is
why.
Now,
shift from fauna, charismatic or otherwise to climate events. I will try to
show how distinctions similar to how we perceive things in the animal world
also afflict what we do with climate events. We all remember the cloud burst
that paralyzed Mumbai some years ago. I will never forget that, because my
cousin spent the night in his car on the road trying to reach his home in Cuffe
Parade in South Mumbai (his driver was at the wheels), leaving his office in
Andheri at a not unreasonable hour that evening. As he told it, it was chaos
reigning supreme. The fact that it was in Mumbai – charisma central of India,
what with Bollywood – made India take notice.
Yes,
we will not forget how a similar downpour and deluge took Uttarakhand,
particularly Kedarnath shrine, by surprise; an instance of insane chaos. The society
took notice of the loss – of course, the affected place had immense religious
significance added to the charisma of
the event – and the nation as a whole rallied together.
There
were at least a few comments that perhaps these events, along with similar
major climatic events like once-in-a-lifetime floods in England, hurricanes of
hundred year return intensity in the Caribbean, never before seen heat waves in
the American mid-west, have their genesis in climate change.
Oh,
that phrase! Of course, people in the know and who believe that the globe is
indeed warming up studiously issued disclaimers – and valid they are – that taking
isolated incidents, charismatic or not, as evidence of climate change is
unwarranted. Climate change is not a one-off thing; rather it is a matter of sustained
change that would tend to have unpredictable outcomes; the best the scientific
community is able to do is to predict outcomes with varying levels of
confidence, but never with certainty. This is how IPCC Assessment reports come
to resemble a mathematician’s paradise, going beyond the ken of normal people
(that is my value judgment – mathematicians are not normal people!).
Now,
we have had unseasonal rain across many regions of India this spring and
farmers have suffered heavy losses. But the events and also the suffering of
the farmers are not charismatic
enough. Why do I care about farmers in Madhya Pradesh? I get my grains and cereals,
and vegetables too from my neighborhood store or street vendors. As far as I am
concerned, there is no charisma to these unseasonal rains.
As
much as I have scoured newspapers, I have not come across any instance of
anyone even hinting that this could be the result of climate change. Why this
step-motherly treatment to droughts, rains, floods that affect farmers as
compared to similar events of high consequence in urban areas and at religious
shrines?
This
is where charisma comes in. The differential treatment must not be because the
media has taken in the scientific consensus against proving climate change
through isolated incidents. It must be because farmers’ suffering is
distributed across the land and the effect is not agglomerative. It is
difficult for me, sitting in Srirangam in Tamil Nadu, to appreciate a farmer in
Madhya Pradesh suffering due to unseasonal rains. The event is coming in at
zero on the charisma scale.
Just
a small digression. The Trichy-Thanjavur region of Tamil Nadu is spotted with
temples of various hues and is considered holy for that reason and so is
Kedarnath. Obviously the floods in Kedarnath tugged at the heartstrings of the
headman of a private university in this region and he went all the way to
Kedarnath to deliver relief goods, collected from the staff of the university.
Continuing
with the topic, though I do not have the numbers to back up, I want to make the
case, that occasional yet too-frequent-to-be-comfortable droughts, unseasonal
rains over a large region etc. are likely to be more in tune with changing
climate than a cloud burst over Mumbai or in Kedarnath. This unseasonal
rainfall could very well be a precursor to such rainfalls being accepted as
seasonal over time, say, two decades. Yes, an isolated hundred year return
period hurricane returning within a decade might be telling us something. But
as an isolated case, it is just that – an isolated case. What do they say? “One
sparrow does not a summer make”.
But,
if we waited for a spate of non-charismatic yet chaos-inducing events to herald,
not the coming of spring but a warmed up globe, then we are lost. Here is an instance
where we have to treat the first swallow as a flock, but with prudence and not
too confidently. We have to have our antennae up for the next swallow, another unseasonal
rain or severe drought. Climate change demands that.
Are
we listening?
Raghuram
Ekambaram
