I have waited about a
week before venturing into adding my two cents (about Rs. 1) worth on 6,999,999,999, yet not adding
one more to it.
Why
were we so fixated on adding one to 6,999,999,999? I knew, without exercising
my brain cells, that at least in India the intersting addition will happen in
one of the BIMARU states (I know this is an outdated terminology; yet, it gets
the point across) and it will definitely be a girl. And, this is a God given
opportunity to make these states BIMARUer, keep them down. We would not pass up
that chance, would we?
It
was such a simple guess. The BIMARU states are blamed for the stubbornly high
birth rate in India that is supposedly dragging down our growth trajectory. It will be easier for any one of them to bear the burden
of one additional straw without its back being broken; not so for Kerala,
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and other such states that suffer from population growth
rate below the national average.
OK,
but why did you predict a girl, you ask. Too easy, blame Amartya Sen and his
“missing girls” calculations. But, there is a problem in the second reckoning.
Just as a guess, the death rate must also be above the national average in the
BIMARU states (after all, in Hindi “bimaru” means illness). Then in predicting
the unit addition to the global population count should not be the “gross” but
the “net” number. The reckoning must be in real time. I assumed this point was
taken care of.
Yes,
more people, more imposition on the environment. And, as we try to lessen the
rate of increase of the global environmental load (I studiously avoided using CC or GW), one item on the list is
decrease in the birth rate. This is what underpins the loud noises surrounding
the unit increase. I am not against this noise.
Yet,
if the concern is about the imposition on the environment, should the noise be
louder about the effect of the unit addition on the environment rather than
about the number per se. Yes.
I am
going to get up close and personal (a
nonsense phrase coined by the TV network ABC some three decades ago which has
inexplicably sustained itself) with Abhishek Bachchan and Aishwarya Bachchan. The
couple will be adding one member to the family soon, as per reports.
Now,
compare the environmental load of the official and the unofficial additions (in
Mumbai, a non-BIMARU location), even before the latter has been added. I
suspect more newsprint and glossies have been filled up about the unofficial unit;
more emails have been sent; more blogs posted; more tweeting and so on (please
read a recent news dispatch about how Google has accounted for the carbon load
of each of these). And, this is before the nominee has arrived. The official
nominee may occupy some space but most definitely only temporarily.
Let
me wait for 14 years or so. During this period, if anyone cared about this
debate she may do an accountant’s accounting of the environmental load in the two
cases for comparison. And, in those 14 years it is expected the interesting
number would be 7,999,999,999, and again not counting.
My
concern is digital but lacks ‘1’.
Raghuram
Ekambaram
4 comments:
There's an article [taken from the Indian Express] by Nani Palkhiwala in the Class XI English course of CBSE in which the author says that "development is the best contraceptive." Development is indeed a good contraceptive, but costlier for the environment than the 'fertility' in states like Bihar, etc. One American puts as much burden on the environment as a score poor Indians.
hail Matheikal for his statement..
"One American puts as much burden on the environment as a score poor Indians."
Gujrath, Bihar and TN and a chastened UP may also reduce their rate of population growth under good leadership.. But I see no hope for other states lead by semen filled politicians.(yes.. I am being patriarchal when I make this comment)
Yes Matheikal, I had argued precisely along these lines, more than 20 years ago, soon after my return to India. Likewise, even within India one baby in the AB household is million times environmentally expensive than a million people in the hamlets in the so-called backward areas (tribals, for instance).
RE
Well, DS sir, you could have as well said, "egg releasing" politicians!
Thanks sir.
RE
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